[Discussion] China Outpaces US in Submarine Launches 2021-2025, Boosts SSBN and SSGN Fleet

[Uncrowned Guard]

Production Pace Surpasses United States

China has outpaced the United States in submarine production between 2021 and 2025, according to research published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and reported by Breaking Defense. The London-based think tank found that China launched 10 submarines during the period, representing an estimated 79,000 tonnes of displacement. By comparison, the United States launched seven submarines totaling approximately 55,000 tonnes.

The findings, detailed in the IISS Military Balance blog by Senior Fellow Henry Boyd and Research Fellow Tom Waldyn, indicate that China’s shipbuilding expansion has accelerated the growth of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) undersea fleet.

Expansion of Nuclear Deterrent Fleet

Among the vessels launched were the seventh and eighth Type 094 (Jin-class) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), a key component of China’s developing nuclear triad. Commercial satellite imagery from early 2026 identified six Type 094 boats distributed across Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co. (BSHIC) in Huludao, the 1st Submarine Base at Jianggezhuang, the Xiaopingdao test facility, and the 2nd Submarine Base at Yalong Bay on Hainan Island.

Accounting for submarines potentially on deterrence patrol or undergoing refit, the researchers assess that the seventh and eighth Type 094 units were likely launched in 2024 and 2025. BSHIC, a state-owned enterprise responsible for China’s nuclear-powered submarines, expanded its facilities between 2019 and 2022, adding a second manufacturing hall and related infrastructure that increased production capacity.

Guided-Missile Submarine Developments

In addition to SSBN construction, China is expanding its fleet of nuclear-powered guided-missile submarines (SSGNs). The report estimates that nine Type 093B (Shang III) submarines have been launched since 2022, based on satellite imagery and U.S. government assessments. The Type 093B is an upgraded variant of the earlier Type 093A and is reportedly equipped with a vertical launch system (VLS) for guided missiles.

A new SSGN class, identified in external reporting as the Type 09V, was also reportedly launched this month. Analysts assess that these VLS-equipped submarines are likely configured to carry anti-ship missiles, including the hypersonic YJ-19 displayed during China’s September military parade. This configuration suggests a focus on high-end naval combat in the Western Pacific rather than the land-attack mission profile typical of U.S. Navy SSGNs.

Operational Constraints and Acoustic Considerations

Despite higher production rates, the IISS notes qualitative differences between Chinese submarines and their U.S. and European counterparts. A key limiting factor for PLAN operations remains acoustic performance. Earlier assessments, including a 2009 U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence report, indicated that the Type 093 and Type 094 designs were noisier than contemporary Western submarines, with sound signatures comparable to late Cold War Soviet platforms.

As a result, Type 094 SSBNs are believed to operate primarily in the comparatively protected waters of the South China Sea, where other People’s Liberation Army assets can provide layered defense. However, the IISS cautions that available acoustic assessments are dated, and the current noise levels of newer variants remain uncertain.

Overall, the findings highlight China’s expanding industrial capacity and sustained investment in undersea warfare, while underscoring continuing performance gaps that shape deployment patterns and strategic use.

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