Uncrowned Guard

Biden Administration Unveils Further Security Support for Ukraine The United States Department of Defense (DoD) has announced an increased wave of security aid for Ukraine, aimed at strengthening the nation's defense structure. The initiative is driven by the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package, valued at approximately $1.25 billion. This package will enhance Ukraine's air defense capacities, artillery munitions, and anti-tank weaponry, responding to the nation's key security challenges. A Comprehensive Aid Package Strengthening Ukraine's Defense System Alongside the PDA package, the DoD has unveiled the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) package, an additional $1.22 billion endeavor, specifically targeted at fortifying Ukraine against Russian hostility. This initiative caters to a myriad of defense sectors, including Unmanned Aerial Systems, air defense, and air-to-ground capabilities. Among the multitude of supplies encompassed by the USAI package are: munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, HAWK air defense munitions, Stinger missiles, Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems munitions, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, air-to-ground munitions, High-speed Anti-radiation missiles, Unmanned Aerial Systems, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems, Tube-launched, Optically guided, Wire-tracked missiles, small arms, grenades, demolitions equipment, medical equipment, secure communication equipment, satellite imagery services, maintenance support, training services, individual clothing, and equipment. Continual US Support for Ukraine and International Aid This recent addition marks the Biden Administration's twenty-third USAI package and the seventy-third tranche of equipment provision from the DoD for Ukraine since August 2021. The United States remains committed to supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression, collaborating with nearly 50 allies and partners through the Ukraine Defense Contact Group and the associated Capability Coalitions. Ukraine's Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko highlighted significant international backing in 2024, with the nation receiving over $41 billion in aid. This assistance allowed Ukraine to maintain full social payments alongside considerable defense expenditures. "On Dec. 25, in response to Russia's mass attack on the country on Christmas Day, President Joe Biden directed the Pentagon to 'continue its surge' of weapons deliveries to Ukraine," Marchenko disclosed. This continued commitment signals the Biden Administration's unwavering support for Ukraine in its enduring conflict.

Trains Destined for Occupied Ukrainian Territories Torched On the night of December 30, Ukrainian partisans, residing in Russia's Moscow Oblast, reportedly put two locomotives to the torch. According to Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the exiled mayor of the Russian-occupied Mariupol, these trains were destined for the occupied areas of Ukraine. The information, disseminated on Andriushchenko's Telegram channel, included several video clips showcasing the flaming ruins of the locomotives. However, independent verification of these claims by official sources remains elusive. Andriushchenko went on to detail how the members of the Mariupol resistance destroyed an electric train estimated at around 50 million rubles ($460 million), while the Azov resistance group took down a diesel train. The damages incurred were of a permanent nature. This behavior isn't new amongst Ukrainian partisans. They also previously claimed responsibility for several attacks on Russian transit infrastructure, including an incident earlier this month concerning the sabotage of a critical railway line connecting Russia's Moscow and Kursk oblasts, a move that significantly interrupted supply lines. German-Russian Citizens Charged with Spying In a separate turn of events, three German-Russian citizens from the town of Bayreuth, Germany, found themselves at the mercy of Germany's Federal Prosecutor's Office. On December 30, they were charged with spying for Russia. Of the trio, one of the main suspects falls on Dieter S., a 40-year-old former participant of Russian proxy forces in Ukraine who reportedly photographed military facilities and plotted railway sabotage. According to warnings from Der Spiegel, Russian hybrid attacks and sabotage operations against NATO countries have witnessed a sharp increase, following Moscow's launch of a full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022. Dieter S., alongside two other suspected accomplices, was allegedly zeroing in on potential targets within Bavaria. Their rumored list consists of the U.S. Grafenwoehr military base where Ukrainian soldiers are currently undergoing training. Potential plans deviate from just railway track sabotage; conversations about bomb attacks and arson entered the mix. The aim? To undermine Germany's backing for Kyiv. NATO Warns of Rising Sabotage Cases and Potential Casualties German investigators assert that Dieter S. has previous ties to Russian intelligence services. His record includes serving for Russian proxy forces against Ukraine in Donbas from 2014 to 2016, a stint landing him legal charges as soon as October this year. Dieter S. and Alexander J. found themselves under arrest in April of this year following an initial investigation by German security services. However, the arrest warrant against Alexander J. was subsequently suspended, with no explanation given. Apprehensions regarding Russian hybrid attacks threatening allied nations have been voiced by NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary-General James Appathurai. According to his warning, such an attack might lead to substantial casualties, especially as sabotage cases experienced a surge in 2024. The latest case registers the Finnish authorities seizing the Eagle S tanker, which was transporting Russian oil, under suspicion of cutting an undersea cable between Finland and Estonia.

Trump Team's Ukrainian Peace Deal Proposals Rejected by Russia In the ongoing political tension surrounding Ukraine, Russia has expressed dissatisfaction with the peace deal proposals put forward by the team of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, as per Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's statement on December 29. While the Wall Street Journal earlier indicated that Trump’s team was considering a plan to postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership by an estimated two decades in reciprocation for sustained Western arms resources and the stationing of European peacekeepers to oversee a ceasefire, these proposals have not sat well with Russia. Lavrov's Denouncement of Peacekeeper Proposal Lavrov expressed his disapproval of the proposed strategy - putting a pause on hostility concentrated along the current battlefront and shifting the onus of encountering Russia to Europe. He particularly denounced the concept of deploying European peacekeepers in Ukraine. In Lavrov's words, the Russian government finds the proposals made on behalf of members of the president-elect's team decidedly unsatisfactory. In a meeting held in Paris on December 7, Trump allegedly discussed these topics with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron, underlining Europe’s responsibility in warding off Russian aggression. Lack of Official Communication and Future Interactions Lavrov has noted that no direct communications have been received from Washington in relation to these suggestions. He further added that, with Trump’s inauguration not due until January 20, current policies remain under the Biden administration's jurisdiction. Despite the disagreements, Lavrov demonstrated Russia's willingness to connect with the new U.S. administration, given that Washington takes the initiative to reestablish the dialogue severed amidst Russia’s invasion. Russia's Position on the Conflict Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on December 26 that Russia's objective is to "end the conflict" in 2025 while maintaining confidence in frontline success. This followed earlier comments by Lavrov downplaying the likelihood of a ceasefire, dubbing it "a road to nowhere." Putin expressed readiness for discussions with Trump but simultaneously upheld Russia’s inflexible demands, which included non-negotiability on territorial concessions and rejection of Ukraine’s NATO membership. Trump's Team: No Official Steps Outlined Despite his audacious claims of ensuring peace "within 24 hours," Trump’s team is yet to officially articulate any concrete measures for ending the war, keeping stakeholders in anticipation of a clear roadmap.

Latvia Announces Support for Ukraine with Over 1,000 Drones Latvian Defense Minister, Andris Spruds, disclosed via social media on Dec. 28 that the country is committed to transferring more than a thousand varied types of combat drones to Ukraine. The operation will be facilitated via the international drone coalition. Enhancing Ukraine's Aerial Arsenal through the Drone Coalition The supplied drones, produced in Latvia, will be coordinated and dispersed through the U.K. and Latvian-led drone coalition. This organization's primary objective is to bolster Ukraine's collection of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). In additional support, Latvia declared its intent to contribute a further 20 million euros ($20.8 million) to the coalition in 2025. Latvia, a notable supporter of Ukraine, has committed to providing military aid at a rate of 0.25% of its GDP annually, including the promise of thousands of drones. In August, Latvia declared its intention to grant 112 million euros ($126 million) in military aid to Ukraine within 2025 alone, while also playing a significant role in expanding the drone coalition initiative. Seven other nations have joined the drone coalition, alongside the founding states. These include Germany, Canada, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Sweden, Estonia, and Denmark. Previously, the coalition had set a goal to raise 1.8 billion euros ($1.8 billion) by the end of 2024 to extend support to Ukraine. In November, additional funding of $30 million for the drone coalition was announced by the U.K., Germany, Canada, and Luxembourg. Ukraine's Focus on Domestic Drone Production and Usage Ukraine is also aspiring to increase domestic drone production, with a target of manufacturing at least 1 million drones in 2024. On Dec. 29, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that over 96% of all UAVs employed by the military in 2024 were of Ukrainian origin. Kyiv uses long-range drones to make deep strikes into Russian territory, mainly targeting military infrastructure such as airfields, logistics hubs, oil refineries, and depots.

Potential Unconventional Russian Attack Poses Threat, Signals Top NATO Officer The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) may find itself on the precipice of a significant threat from suspected Russian hybrid aggressions, according to the organization's deputy assistant secretary general. These tactics would have been deemed profoundly intolerable just half a decade earlier, suggesting that NATO is situated in an increasingly precarious "boiling frog" situation. The NATO official shared with Sky News the serious possibility of unconventional Russian attacks on NATO - actions such as sabotage or arson - which may possibly precipitate "substantial" casualties. Redefining Grey Zone Warfare Response Strategy James Appathurai, entrusted with updating NATO's strategy to monitor and prevent 'hybrid warfare', has emphasized the necessity for increased solidarity and clarity among NATO allies and Moscow. The objective is to define which levels of grey zone hostility may demand an allied response, potentially including the utilization of military force. There has been a discernable surge in more "kinetic" acts, such as the incapacitation of critical undersea cables, building sabotage, and the installment of incendiary devices inside aircraft cargo since Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ensuring Preparedness for Suspected Russian Hybrid Attacks Appathurai's concern lies in the possibility of an attack so significant that it could compel NATO to invoke its Article 5 collective response, which interprets an attack on one member as an attack on all. He cited the incident in 2018 when Russia attempted to assassinate former Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, using the potent nerve agent Novichok, displaying the potential devastation such unconventional attacks can cause. The need for effective preparation and response strategy is at the forefront of these concerns in order to minimize the damage in case of a significant attack. Updating Strategy to Deter Hybrid Warfare Appathurai and his team are working on refreshening NATO's strategy to understand, deter, and counter hybrid warfare, last reformed in 2015. This new effort involves the documentation of all suspected hybrid attacks, not only from Russia but also from other hostile actors like China, Iran, and North Korea. Scheduled for approval in 2025, the updated policy aims to equip NATO with the necessary knowledge and techniques to better deter aggression and decide on the most appropriate response. Establishing clarity over 'red lines' for hybrid warfare with Russia is crucial and this endeavor aims at marking out such 'no-go' areas and thresholds. The notable increase in subtle forms of aggression signifies a shift towards the 'boiling frog' scenario where today's unacceptable becomes tomorrow's norm. Acknowledging the escalated hybrid hostilities as potential triggers for collective response under Article 5, NATO aims to prevent escalation, manage it if it arises, while also striving to return to pre-conflict conditions.

USS Carl Vinson Docks in Malaysia The USS Carl Vinson, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier belonging to the United States Navy, officially made her port call in Malaysia, marking a significant moment for international cooperation. This arrival happens just over a month after the USS Abraham Lincoln’s visit, highlighting consistent contact between the global naval powers. A Decade of Partnership: US and Malaysia The call marks the 10 years of a robust US-Malaysia partnership. Rear Admiral Michael Wosje, Carrier Strike Group One (CSG-1) commander, offered his remarks on the occasion, noting that the long-term security and military cooperation between both nations underlines their shared commitment to bolstering prosperity, security, and peace in the region. Beyond these shared objectives, the Rear Admiral pointed out how the visit by the world's largest warship facilitates further cooperation with the Royal Malaysian Navy. "This visit allows us to build upon our strategic and mutually beneficial partnership while also giving our sailors much-deserved rest and relaxation, exploring the rich cultural offerings of Kuala Lumpur and becoming closer to the local community," Wosje announced per NST. Wosje expressed gratitude for the opportunity to work alongside the Royal Malaysian Navy. He repeated his commitment to deepening ties through joint exercises, reemphasizing the close cooperation that exists between the US and Malaysia on security matters. Enhancing Relations through Cultural Exchanges Captain Matthew Thomas, the ship's commanding officer, thanked the welcoming citizens of Port Klang and Kuala Lumpur, recognized for their hospitality. He revealed his delight in inviting Royal Malaysian Navy and government officials aboard the Vinson and the opportunity to embrace the diverse history and culture of Malaysia. The significant docking will see nearly 7,500 sailors from CSG-1 taking part in cultural exchanges, community events, and morale, welfare, and recreation-sponsored tours to foster cultural understanding and cooperation. The visit also included a media tour, where press members were shown the ship's vast flight deck, home to over 60 aircraft, and other key facilities such as its canteen and medical amenities. The USS Carl Vinson will remain docked at Port Klang for several days before continuing its operations in the region. The Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group operates within the territory of the US Seventh Fleet, preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific region. This naval giant, towering at approximately 244 feet tall from keel to mast, houses over 5,000 personnel. The US-Malaysia diplomatic relations began in 1957, following Malaysia's independence, culminating in a Comprehensive Partnership agreement in 2014. This latest port call by the USS Carl Vinson reaffirms this ongoing collaboration.

Ukraine's Unique Plan to Prioritize Education Amid Conflict By 2025, Ukraine is revealing a rather unique blueprint for education, foreseeing the launch of over 150 underground educational facilities, as stated by Deputy Education Minister Nadiia Kuzmychova in a recent briefing. A Response to Unprecedented Challenges Ukraine has found itself entangled in a web of adversity resulting from continuous Russian aerial attacks. The relentless bombardment has severely impacted the nation’s civil infrastructure, compelling the government to ponder safer alternatives for its educational institutions. These underground schools and vocational training centers are, therefore, a calculated strategic move in response to the persistent threats. As detailed by Kuzmychova, the plan encompasses the building of 139 underground schools, alongside several vocational training institutions, as an efficacious way to ensure the provision of quality education amidst the crisis. The Journey of Construction As of now, there are 79 underground education facilities under construction, with most of them being built in regions that suffer the brunt of Russian shelling. Kuzmychova asserted that construction would continue vigorously, with an anticipated completion of all the facilities as early as September 1, 2025. Kharkiv, a city in Ukraine, has taken the lead by leveraging its metro stations to hold classes, thus pushing the boundaries and paving the way for a safe yet efficacious learning environment. Such initiative showcases the country's unwavering determination to keep educational opportunities alive despite turbulence. Impact of Russian Invasion on Ukraine's Education System The conflict with Russia has dramatically hampered Ukraine's educational foundation. Data published by the Education Ministry in February 2024 revealed that Russia's invasion had disrupted one in every seven Ukrainian schools, besides completely obliterating 400 educational institutions. Similarly, the commencement of the school year in September 2024 bore witness to the heartbreaking reality of conflict. Within the initial three days, at least 12 educational institutions were ravaged by Russian strikes, leading to many casualties. As such, Ukraine's innovative approach to its educational infrastructure underlines its commitment to the continuity of learning in the face of adversity.

German-Made Leopard 1 Tanks Flood into Ukraine After Extended Delays It has taken a surprising period of 19 months for German industries to refurbish and deliver the first batch of 58 Leopard 1A5 tanks, out of a minimum of 155, pledged to Ukraine by a consortium led by Germany, including The Netherlands and Belgium. However, despite parts shortages, dispatch rates are finally on the rise. Since the initial delivery of the 58 Leopard 1A5 tanks, which arrived in Ukraine in early September, an additional 45 tanks have been shipped, increasing the pace significantly. The Impact of the Leopard 1A5 on Ukraine's Defense Capabilities The delivery schedule is significant to the Ukrainian's defense strategy. The Leopard 1A5, manned by a four-person crew, is set to become the most populous Western-made tank in Ukraine, outnumbering the Leopard 2 tanks (104 in total), the American-made M-1s (80 units), and surpassing the modest 14 British-made Challenger 2s. Currently, the Ukrainian general staff has already assigned the Challenger 2s, M-1s, and Leopard 2s to their designated brigades. This leaves the Leopard 1s, the only Western tanks, to equip the dozen or so new heavy brigades that the Ukrainians have formed recently. Each Ukrainian mechanized brigade typically houses a single tank battalion consisting of 31 tanks. Berlin announced the delivery of the most recent batch of 15 Leopard 1s on Monday. This delivery also included armored trucks, artillery, air-defense equipment, and a significant quantity of ammunition, adding to the nearly 7 billion Euros worth of aid that Germany has sent to Ukraine in the past 34 months since Russia intensified its warfare. The Key Features and Utility of the Leopard Tanks in Ukraine’s Warfare The Leopard 1 tank, a relic from the 1980s, is not the latest addition to the Ukrainian inventory, but it is not the oldest either. Its relatively light construction and armor compared to, for instance, the 69-ton M-1, should not detract from its powerful 105-millimeter main gun and robust EMES-18 fire-control system. Ukraine, recognizing the Leopard 1’s main flaw of thin protection, has added blocks of reactive armor and anti-drone netting to increase its defense capabilities. So far, the additions to the tanks appear to be constructive. Only six of the 58 Leopard 1s that Ukrainians received between July 2023 and early September have been confirmed as destroyed. However, it's noticeable that the Ukrainians tend to avoid sending the Leopard 1s to high-risk sectors. Despite some flaws, the Leopard 1 has inspired confidence in its crew members. Ukrainian units have developed tactics to reduce the risk of a catastrophic event, such as limiting the stowage of rounds in the turret to avoid ammunition explosion following an enemy hit. Ukraine's New Mechanized Brigade and Leopard 2 Tanks Strengthen Pokrovsk Ahead of Potential Russian Attack The eerie silence enveloping Pokrovsk, a transportation hub in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, gives a chilling warning of an impending storm. The once-populated city has seen its residents shrink to a handful of Ukrainian military personnel since Russia escalated its war on Ukraine in February 2022. The looming threat is the Russian army’s 90th Guards Tank Division, which forms the powerhouse of a formidable force consisting of dozens of brigades and regiments in two field armies. This force, totaling nearly 70,000 troops, is preparing to capture Pokrovsk shortly. The Ukrainian garrison, much smaller in comparison, is expecting key reinforcements. The 155th Mechanized Brigade, equipped with the German-designed Leopard 2 tanks and French-made Caesar howitzers, is reportedly deploying near the city. The Russians, however, are closing in on Pokrovsk. Russian units south of Pokrovsk are reportedly pushing forward to form a defensive line, in an attempt to cut off Ukrainian support from the south. Ukrainians might respond by pulling back several brigades and battalions currently holding a small salient within the Russian-occupied territory. As the conflict escalates, the 155th Mechanized Brigade with its German tanks, French howitzers, and 2,000 new soldiers should be fully deployed in Pokrovsk. The question of whether they can hold the city against an onslaught is one of the pivots of this phase in the wider war that has, so far, claimed over a million casualties.