[Discussion] Ukraine Claims Net February Gains as Southern Front Intensifies

[Uncrowned Guard]

Ukraine Reports Net Territorial Gains in February 2026

Ukrainian forces captured more territory in February 2026 than Russian troops seized during the same period, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on March 2. The statement follows a winter slowdown in Russian advances across much of the front line, while Ukrainian units conducted offensive actions in select sectors.

Syrskyi described the period as a difficult winter campaign, noting that Ukraine’s relative territorial gains were the highest since the start of its incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in summer 2024. On Feb. 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had liberated 300 square kilometers in what he characterized as a counteroffensive operation.

Southern Front Sees Increased Activity

Offensive activity was most visible along the southern front, particularly near the boundary between Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Dozens of videos circulated in February showing Ukrainian assaults in the area, which lacks significant natural defensive features and has remained one of the most fluid sectors since autumn 2025.

Russian forces had previously advanced there against comparatively weaker Ukrainian brigades. However, the front has since stabilized. Open-source analysts describe much of the current fighting as occurring within a contested “grey zone,” with infiltrations by both sides. Trackable Ukrainian advances appear to involve clearing operations rather than the seizure of established Russian defensive lines.

Mapping Data Reflects Slower Russian Progress

Independent open-source mapping project Deep State reported that Ukraine lost 126 square kilometers in February, the lowest monthly territorial loss since summer 2024. While Russian gains in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts have largely stalled, the project noted continued Russian advances near occupied Siversk in Donetsk Oblast.

Deep State has not yet incorporated the reported Ukrainian counterattacks in the southern sector into its public maps, citing operational security considerations and a cautious verification process.

Winter Conditions Shape Battlefield Dynamics

As in the previous winter, cold weather has generally favored defensive operations. Harsh conditions and limited cover have complicated Russian small-group infiltration tactics, with many units reportedly unable to traverse drone-monitored “kill zones” without detection.

Weather-related constraints, including fog and reduced battery performance, have affected drone operations on both sides. Despite these limitations, Syrskyi said Russian personnel losses have averaged above 1,000 per day during the winter, exceeding Moscow’s recruitment capacity. Similar assessments have previously been voiced by Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi.

Accurate measurement of territorial control remains increasingly difficult due to the fluidity of front-line positions and limited independent verification. Nonetheless, February’s data and official statements indicate a relative shift in momentum compared with earlier periods of the conflict.

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