[Discussion] On-Chain Probe Flags $2.4M in Near-Perfect Iran War Bets on Polymarket

On-Chain Investigation Flags High-Accuracy Iran War Bets

A cluster of nine linked Polymarket accounts generated roughly $2.4 million by placing highly accurate wagers on U.S. military actions tied to Iran, according to a Decrypt report citing blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.

Bubblemaps said the accounts appeared coordinated and won about 98% of their bets. The wallets were created only days before the United States’ initial bombardment of Iran in late February, the firm said, and then proceeded to make a string of successful trades on sensitive geopolitical outcomes.

Pattern of Trading Raised Insider Concerns

According to Bubblemaps, the accounts rarely lost, and when they did, losses were limited to a few hundred dollars. Analysts at the firm told Decrypt they believe those small losing trades may have been placed deliberately to reduce suspicion.

On larger positions, Bubblemaps said the accounts traded with near-perfect timing. The reported wagers included markets tied to the timing of U.S. strikes on Iran, the ousting of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the establishment of a temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States.

The firm said those trades produced more than $2.4 million in profits on Polymarket, fueling suspicions that the users may have acted on privileged information.

Limited Clues About Who Controlled the Wallets

Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman told Decrypt there is little direct evidence linking the accounts to any specific country or identity. He said one circumstantial detail was that one account used the name “whopperlover,” but added that this does not meaningfully establish who was behind the activity.

Vaiman noted that the users focused heavily on U.S. military markets related to Iran, but said that alone does not prove the traders were American.

Bubblemaps further reported that the proceeds were ultimately off-ramped to Bybit, a Dubai-based centralized exchange. The funds also moved through Binance and HTX, and analysts said a third-party service may have been used during that process.

Case Emerges After Earlier Polymarket Prosecution

The new findings follow a recent federal case involving Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Prosecutors allege Van Dyke used classified intelligence to place Polymarket wagers related to America’s attack on Venezuela and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, earning more than $400,000.

Van Dyke was arrested last month and has pleaded not guilty, according to the report.

The Bubblemaps investigation was first revealed on 60 Minutes.

Prediction Markets Face Renewed Regulatory Scrutiny

The report adds to a broader debate over insider trading on prediction market platforms. In recent months, the issue has drawn attention in Washington as some lawmakers push for tighter restrictions on the sector, while the Trump administration has argued that existing laws are sufficient.

Supporters of prediction markets have long argued that insider participation can improve market accuracy, even as critics contend it undermines fairness and creates incentives for misuse of confidential information. The suspected Iran-related trades are likely to intensify that dispute, particularly as regulators and lawmakers weigh how these platforms should be monitored when wagers intersect with military and national security events.

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