Uncrowned Guard

Ukrainian strikes hit Moscow region and occupied CrimeaUkraine said it carried out a coordinated long-range attack overnight on May 16–17 targeting military-industrial and fuel infrastructure in Moscow Oblast and Russian-occupied Crimea. The Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, said the operation was conducted jointly with the Armed Forces and included strikes on the Moscow Oil Refinery, air defense systems, and infrastructure at the Belbek military airfield in Crimea. Russian authorities and local reports said residential buildings were also damaged and that at least three people were killed. Moscow said its air defenses intercepted 1,054 Ukrainian drones, eight guided aerial bombs, and two newly developed Ukrainian missiles during the attack. Those figures, like many battlefield claims from both sides, could not be independently verified. Zelensky frames attacks as evidence of shifting momentumPresident Volodymyr Zelensky described the operation as a “significant” demonstration of Ukraine’s long-range strike capability and linked it to what he called a broader shift in momentum on the battlefield. In his May 17 evening address, he said Western partners were increasingly recognizing changes both in attitudes toward the war and in the vulnerability of targets on Russian territory. Zelensky said Moscow’s extensive defensive measures around the capital were no longer preventing Ukrainian strikes from reaching strategic sites. He also suggested that Russian oil infrastructure should expect continued pressure, referring specifically to refineries, oil facilities, and industrial enterprises. He characterized the attack as a response to Russia’s continued strikes on Ukrainian cities. Growing scale of deep-strike campaignUkraine has repeatedly targeted facilities tied to Russia’s war effort, including oil refineries, fuel depots, and weapons-related production sites. Recent attacks, however, indicate a higher tempo and an apparent ability to penetrate heavily defended areas around Moscow. Russian state media outlet RIA Novosti, citing the Defense Ministry, reported that 3,124 Ukrainian drones were downed over Russia and Russian-occupied territory during the previous week. It also said 572 drones were intercepted in a May 13 attack that primarily targeted oil and gas infrastructure. The reported increase in Ukrainian drone activity reflects Kyiv’s effort to place additional strain on Russia’s military-industrial base and logistics network far from the front line. Front-line claims remain contestedZelensky also used his address to argue that battlefield dynamics have shifted in Ukraine’s favor. He said Ukrainian monitoring showed more Ukrainian “active operations” than Russian ones over the 24-hour period spanning May 16–17 and pledged to increase supplies needed to sustain those efforts. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has previously said Ukrainian forces captured more territory in February than Russian troops. Zelensky separately said in March that Ukraine had liberated more than 400 square kilometers of Russian-occupied territory in the eastern parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Independent verification of such claims remains difficult because of fluid front lines and contested “gray zone” areas where control is unclear. Kremlin signals openness to renewed talks with EuropeAfter the Moscow attack, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia could resume dialogue with European states. Speaking on May 17, he said growing discussion in Europe about eventually speaking with Moscow was a positive sign and that the Russian side would be ready for renewed communication. The remarks came amid debate in Europe over future diplomacy with Russia as uncertainty continues around U.S. efforts to end the war. Peskov criticized EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas as an unsuitable potential negotiator, while Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna warned against talks that could allow Moscow to buy time. Finnish President Alexander Stubb had earlier argued that European leaders should move toward direct dialogue with Russia, saying U.S. policy no longer fully aligns with European goals. View full article

Reported Military ProcurementCuba has sought to acquire drones and other military equipment from Russia within the past month, according to an Axios report published May 17 citing unnamed U.S. officials. The same report said Cuban officials have discussed possible attacks on the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, targets in Key West, and U.S. military vessels. A senior U.S. official told Axios that Cuban authorities are also studying how Iran has withstood sustained U.S. military pressure during recent strikes. U.S. officials presented those discussions as part of a broader Cuban effort to evaluate asymmetric military options close to U.S. territory. Existing Drone Stockpile and Intelligence RoleAccording to the report, Havana has already purchased more than 300 Russian and Iranian drones of “varying capabilities” and dispersed them to storage sites across the island. U.S. officials did not publicly detail the models or operational status of the systems. Axios also reported that Cuba continues to host espionage facilities used to collect signals intelligence for China and Russia. U.S. officials cited the island’s proximity to the United States as a central concern, arguing that drone technology and intelligence infrastructure positioned roughly 90 miles from Florida increase strategic risk even if Cuba’s conventional military capabilities remain limited. U.S. Warning Following Ratcliffe VisitThe issue reportedly featured in CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s May 14 visit to Cuba. A CIA official told Axios that Washington used the visit to warn Havana against military escalation and to signal that U.S. sanctions relief would require political change and an end to Cuba’s role as a platform for foreign adversaries. The official said Ratcliffe’s message was that Cuba should no longer enable hostile activity in the Western Hemisphere. U.S. officials nonetheless indicated they do not currently view Cuba as a major direct military threat. One senior official told Axios that concerns are centered less on conventional aircraft or large-scale force projection and more on the island’s location and its links to Russia and Iran. Links to Russia’s War in UkraineU.S. officials also told Axios that Cuba has contributed about 5,000 soldiers to Russia’s war against Ukraine. They said Cuban participation has exposed Havana to lessons from drone warfare and Iranian-backed tactics used by Russian forces. Ukraine downgraded diplomatic relations with Cuba in October and closed its embassy in Havana, citing the significant number of Cuban nationals recruited to fight for Russia in the full-scale war. U.S. officials portrayed that battlefield exposure as one factor shaping Cuba’s growing interest in unmanned systems. Potential U.S. Response and Raul Castro CaseAxios reported that the intelligence gathered on Cuba’s military activity could inform future U.S. policy decisions, particularly amid the reported presence of Iranian military advisers in Havana. No formal U.S. action was announced. Separately, the U.S. Department of Justice is expected to unseal an indictment against Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 downing of civilian aircraft, according to the report. Although Castro stepped down as president in 2018 and left the Communist Party leadership in 2021, he remains widely regarded as one of Cuba’s most influential political figures. View full article

Mid-air collision during Idaho air showFour naval aviators ejected safely after two U.S. Navy E/A-18G Growlers collided during an aerial demonstration at Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho. Cmdr. Amelia Umayam, a spokesperson for Naval Air Forces, U.S. Pacific Fleet, said all four crewmembers were recovered after ejecting and were being evaluated by medical personnel. First responders were sent to the scene following the accident. The aircraft were part of the Navy’s E/A-18G Growler Demonstration Team performing at the Gunfighter Skies Air Show. Each E/A-18G carries two aircrew: a pilot and an electronic warfare officer. Timeline and location of the crashAccording to the Navy, the collision occurred at about 12:10 p.m. involving two E/A-18Gs assigned to Electronic Attack Squadron 129, or VAQ-129, based at Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, Washington. A spokesperson for Mountain Home Air Force Base told Task & Purpose the crash occurred roughly two miles northwest of the installation during the demonstration. Witness images and local media footage showed smoke rising near the crash area after impact. The Idaho Statesman reported that an air show announcer told the crowd, “We had four good parachutes. The crews were able to eject.” Footage shows rapid ejection sequenceA video circulated on social media appeared to show the two Growlers flying in close formation before making contact. In the footage, the aircraft seem to remain entangled briefly, pitching upward before both crews eject. The ejections appear to take place within seconds of the initial collision. The unmanned aircraft then descend together and crash, followed by a fireball on impact. Separate photos and videos showed four parachutes descending near the crash site. Task & Purpose reported that images posted by KBTV and footage shared on the Amn/nco/snco Facebook page captured the sequence from collision through impact. Aircraft and unit backgroundThe E/A-18G Growler is the Navy’s carrier-capable electronic attack aircraft, derived from the F/A-18 family. It is equipped for missions that include detecting, disrupting, and targeting enemy radar and other electronic systems. VAQ-129, the squadron involved in the incident, serves as the fleet replacement squadron for the Growler community. Like most Navy Growler units, it is based at NAS Whidbey Island, which also hosts initial training for pilots and naval flight officers assigned to the platform. A separate Whidbey Island-based E/A-18G crashed during a training flight near Mount Rainier in 2024. Air show contextThe aircraft were participating in the two-day Gunfighter Skies Air Show, which featured military demonstration teams and vintage aircraft. According to reporting cited by Task & Purpose, this year’s event marked the first Gunfighter Skies show held in eight years. KTVB also published an interview with Navy Lt. Kevin Lynch, identified as a member of the demonstration team, that appeared to have been recorded before the accident. The base has previously seen a fatal air show accident: a hang glider performer died during a 2018 crash. No fatalities were reported in the Growler collision, and all four naval aviators survived the incident. View full article

Drone strike hits edge of Barakah siteA drone strike sparked a fire Sunday on the edge of the United Arab Emirates’ Barakah nuclear power plant, the country’s only nuclear facility, in what UAE authorities described as an “unprovoked terrorist attack.” No group immediately claimed responsibility, and officials did not assign blame. The UAE Defense Ministry said three drones crossed the country’s western border with Saudi Arabia. Two were intercepted, while the third struck near the plant. Saudi Arabia separately condemned the attack and later said it had intercepted three drones that entered from Iraqi airspace. Per the AP report, there were no reported injuries and no radiological release. Safety systems remained operationalThe UAE’s nuclear regulator said the fire did not affect plant safety and that “all units are operating as normal.” The International Atomic Energy Agency said the strike caused a fire in an electrical generator and that one reactor was being powered by emergency diesel generators. Barakah is a four-reactor facility built with South Korean assistance at a reported cost of $20 billion. It began operating in 2020 and is the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world. The station can supply roughly one-quarter of the UAE’s electricity needs. The attack marked the first known wartime strike on Barakah itself. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement claimed in 2017 that it had targeted the plant while it was still under construction, a claim Abu Dhabi denied at the time. Regional tensions frame the incidentThe strike came amid rising tension around the Strait of Hormuz and a fragile ceasefire in the wider conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States. The UAE has hosted Israeli air defenses and personnel and has recently accused Iran of launching drone and missile attacks. Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said the attack, “whether carried out by the principal actor or through one of its proxies, represents a dangerous escalation.” Iran and allied Shiite militias in Iraq have previously launched drone attacks against Gulf Arab states during the war. Shortly after speaking with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. President Donald Trump posted that Iran should move “FAST.” In Tehran, Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said on state television that Iran’s armed forces were ready while diplomacy continued. Different nuclear programs, different safeguardsThe UAE’s nuclear program operates under a strict U.S. “123 agreement,” under which Abu Dhabi agreed not to enrich uranium domestically or reprocess spent fuel. Its uranium is imported, a structure intended to reduce proliferation concerns. That framework differs sharply from Iran’s nuclear program, which remains at the center of long-running disputes with Washington and Israel. Iran says its program is peaceful, but it has enriched uranium near weapons-grade levels and has faced scrutiny over past military dimensions and limits on U.N. inspections. Israel is widely believed to be the region’s only nuclear-armed state, though it has neither confirmed nor denied possessing such weapons. Ceasefire shows further signs of strainThe latest strike underscored the vulnerability of nuclear infrastructure in conflict zones, a risk also seen during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and in reported attacks near Iran’s Bushehr plant. Two people familiar with the matter, including an Israeli military officer, told the AP that Israel is coordinating with the United States on a possible resumption of attacks. Speaking to his Cabinet, Netanyahu said Israel was “prepared for any scenario.” On Iranian state television, presenters on at least two channels appeared armed during live broadcasts, including one segment in which a host received basic firearms instruction from a masked Revolutionary Guard member. The broadcasts added to signs that, despite the ceasefire, the confrontation remains unstable. View full article