Uncrowned Guard

Intensifying Violence in Gaza and the Wider Middle East The ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict continues to dominate headlines, with reports this week of heavy shelling in Rafah despite mounting international concern. The humanitarian situation remains dire as ceasefire negotiations falter, and regional tensions widen. Along Lebanon’s southern border, crossfire between Hezbollah and Israeli forces has further complicated an already volatile situation. Meanwhile, unrest persists in the West Bank, where sporadic clashes and raids have resulted in new casualties, deepening fears of further escalation. Shifting Frontlines in Ukraine and Emerging European Tensions Eastern Ukraine saw renewed hostilities with Russian forces reportedly making incremental gains near Kharkiv, placing further strain on Ukrainian resources and communities. Drone and missile attacks continued to cause civilian and infrastructure damage in both Ukraine and Russia, reflecting the war’s harsh human toll. Simultaneously, cross-border raids and sabotage incidents stoked anxieties in neighboring NATO countries, as governments in Poland and the Baltic states voiced alarm over possible spillover effects from the protracted conflict. Escalation and Humanitarian Strain in Sudan and the Sahel Sudan’s civil conflict between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces intensified this week, with reports of heavy fighting in El Fasher and continued displacement of civilians across Darfur. Aid organizations warned of catastrophic malnutrition and worsening disease outbreaks. In the broader Sahel region, newly consolidated military regimes in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger faced renewed attacks from jihadist groups, fueling a complex web of violence marked by ethnic tensions and coupled with mass displacement. Violence in Myanmar’s Fractured Landscape On the Asian front, Myanmar’s longstanding internal conflict saw a sharp uptick in hostilities, especially in Kayah and Rakhine states. Ethnic armed groups made substantial gains against junta forces, prompting retaliatory airstrikes and ground operations. Aid to civilians has been further hampered by restricted access and governmental obstruction, raising alarm over the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian conditions. Lesser-Known Flashpoints and Emerging Concerns Beyond major global hotspots, several lesser-known but significant conflicts simmered this week. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, fighting between the national army and M23 rebels in North Kivu disrupted thousands of lives. In northern Mozambique, insurgents affiliated with Islamic State maintained pressure on local populations and security forces in Cabo Delgado. Meanwhile, in Colombia’s Cauca region, both guerrilla and paramilitary violence surged, threatening renewed instability despite ongoing peace efforts. Conclusion: A Global Tapestry of Conflict As the past week has shown, conflict and warfare continue to shape the lives of millions across continents. The diversity and complexity of these crises highlight both the persistent obstacles to peace and the urgent need for sustained international attention—especially to those communities caught in overlooked or underreported arenas of suffering.

U.S. Military Revives Jungle Training in Panama After Decades-Long Hiatus American Marines and soldiers are once again navigating the dense jungles of Panama, marking a significant return after more than 20 years away. This move sees the revival of traditional jungle warfare instruction, now expanded through a renewed partnership with Panamanian security forces. The Combined Jungle Operations Training Course: A New Era This fall, the U.S. Southern Command launched the Combined Jungle Operations Training Course in Panama, reopening critical avenues for conventional forces to refine survival and combat techniques beneath the forest canopy. The 21-day program, developed collaboratively with Panamanian authorities, plunges participants into a rigorous schedule blending classic survival knowledge—such as water purification and shelter building—with contemporary combat drills tailored to the jungle’s unpredictable terrain. Participants include both U.S. Marines and soldiers, alongside Panamanian security personnel, reflecting a stronger bilateral focus on preparing for evolving security challenges in tropical environments. Strategic Context: Renewed Security Ties Shape Regional Posture This training renaissance is the product of renewed security arrangements between the U.S. and Panama, a shift that comes in the wake of heightened diplomatic attention and security concerns in the region. While special operations forces have continued low-profile training in Panama for years, conventional U.S. military presence had all but vanished after American forces handed over Fort Sherman in 1999. The reinstatement of such joint exercises is not directly linked to recent U.S. military reallocations in the Caribbean or efforts to curb maritime threats to small vessels, but it does signal Washington’s revitalized interest in Latin America’s strategic landscape. Alongside the base renovations and deployments in nearby territories like Puerto Rico, the jungle program marks a multifaceted approach to regional defense and partnerships. Jungle Training’s Storied Legacy and Modern Revival Panama’s jungles have long been a crucible for American and Latin American military forces. Since 1916, U.S. troops have used the isthmus as a training ground, culminating in the establishment of the renowned "Green Hell" Jungle Operations Training Center at Fort Sherman. During its heyday, thousands cycled through each year, mastering the art of jungle warfare—an emphasis that faded in the post-Cold War era and amid the focus on desert warfare after 9/11. Graduates and Future Opportunities To date, 46 individuals—including Marines, Army soldiers, and Panamanian security members—have graduated from the latest iteration of the course. Following a successful pilot in August with a select group from the 2nd Battalion, 2nd Marines, trainees continue to hone their skills at sites such as the Base Aeronaval Cristóbal Colón. The reinvigoration of jungle warfare training in Panama underscores not only the endurance of U.S.-Panamanian military cooperation but also the adaptability of modern armed forces to emerging geopolitical demands. As regional dynamics shift, the lush forests of Panama once again serve as vital classrooms for the challenges ahead.

Ukrainian Forces Withdraw from Key Positions Amid Escalating Pressure in Zaporizhzhia Oblast Ukrainian troops have been compelled to withdraw from positions near five settlements in the embattled Zaporizhzhia Oblast, signaling a shift in control along one of the war’s most volatile front lines. The move, confirmed by Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces, underscores mounting difficulties as Russian forces intensify their offensive operations in the region. Withdrawing Under Fire: The Changing Front Lines Voloshyn reported a complete withdrawal from Uspenivka and Novomykolaivka, while heavy fighting continues for control over Yablukove and several other settlements. “The contact line remains dynamic,” Voloshyn told local media, emphasizing that the defensive operation is ongoing amid an increasingly complex battlefield situation. The retreat follows remarks by Ukraine’s Assault Forces Commander, Valentyn Manko, who noted on November 9 that Ukrainian troops had recently repelled Russian advances and recaptured Solodke and Rivnopillia. However, intense clashes persist near Poltavka and Uspenivka as Russian troops push toward the strategic city of Huliaipole, aiming to sever vital supply routes from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian Gains and Tactical Shifts Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi acknowledged on November 11 that Russian troops had seized three settlements in the area. Fierce offensives are being orchestrated under the cover of dense fog, with Russian units exploiting adverse weather conditions to infiltrate Ukrainian lines undetected. The deteriorating visibility has significantly hampered Ukraine’s drone reconnaissance and strikes, giving Russian forces a tactical edge as they press on the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole fronts. According to Voloshyn, up to 50 clashes now occur daily in the Orikhiv and Huliaipole sectors, with Russian troops launching repeated assaults and effectively destroying established Ukrainian fortifications. “They have destroyed all existing fortifications and shelters, forcing us to withdraw from certain positions,” he said. The Fight for Pokrovsk: Russia Advances Under Cover of Fog Simultaneously, Russian forces are escalating operations in neighboring Donetsk Oblast, targeting the city of Pokrovsk. Once a relatively safe haven and key logistics hub for Ukraine, Pokrovsk now faces mounting threats from Russian units entering from the south and seeking to encircle the city. More than 300 Russian troops are reported to have advanced into Pokrovsk, concentrating on reaching its northern boundaries in an effort to isolate Ukrainian defenders. Despite these advances, Ukrainian troops remain engaged in fierce urban combat, neutralizing several Russian infiltration groups in recent weeks. Ukrainian reports indicate over 160 Russian soldiers have been killed and nearly 40 wounded in Pokrovsk since the start of November. Strategic Implications and Ongoing Resistance The recent withdrawal in Zaporizhzhia marks a significant recalibration of Ukraine’s defensive lines as Russian troops leverage both numerical superiority and weather conditions to gain ground. With Russia now holding approximately 70% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast but not the regional capital, the broader struggle for control of southeastern Ukraine remains far from settled. Meanwhile, Pokrovsk stands nearly encircled, with only a narrow corridor open for Ukrainian reinforcements and supplies. President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that Russian forces outnumber Ukrainian defenders by a staggering eight-to-one in the bid to capture the city, underscoring the scale of the challenge ahead. As the conflict evolves, questions persist over whether Ukrainian forces can stabilize defensive positions and prevent further territorial losses in the face of Moscow’s intensified campaign—propelled, for now, by fog and fire.

Ukraine's Energy Lifeline Severed After Unprecedented Russian Assault Following what has been described as the most significant attack to date on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, all thermal power plants operated by Centrenergo—Ukraine’s state-owned energy provider—are now offline. Overnight on November 8, Russian forces launched a coordinated assault targeting the entire power generation network managed by the company, sharply escalating efforts to cripple the country's energy supply ahead of winter. All Centrenergo Thermal Plants Out of Operation Centrenergo confirmed that every one of its thermal power plants—Trypillia in Kyiv Oblast, Zmiivska in Kharkiv Oblast, and Vuhlehirska in Donetsk Oblast—has been rendered inoperable. Many of these facilities had only recently resumed partial operations after past attacks, but Russian drones and missiles struck repeatedly through the night, undoing months of restoration work within minutes. The company emphasized the intensity of the bombardment, stating that multiple drones targeted their facilities “each minute” during the offensive. Ukrainian air defenses were able to down 406 out of 458 drones and 9 out of 45 cruise and ballistic missiles unleashed by Russia, but the barrage still proved overwhelmingly destructive. Destruction Compounds Ongoing Energy Crisis The loss of all Centrenergo assets deepens an already acute energy crisis for Ukraine. The Vuhlehirska plant has been under Russian occupation since July 2022, and the Zmiivska facility was declared completely destroyed last spring. The latest assault eradicated all progress made, leaving vast swathes of Ukraine at risk of power shortages as winter temperatures approach. Centrenergo stated, “For safety reasons, we remained silent, but we did everything possible to ensure that Ukrainians got through the last winter with electricity and heat… Less than a month has passed since the previous strike, and last night the enemy again hit all of our power generation facilities simultaneously.” Russian Strategy: Targeting Critical Civil Infrastructure Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities have intensified this fall, with a marked increase in strikes on power plants, gas production, and electricity distribution networks. The latest onslaught focused on major cities including Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv, and resulted in widespread emergency power outages. The attack follows earlier operations in early October that eliminated an estimated 60% of Ukraine’s gas production capacity in a matter of days. Military analysts suggest that these attacks form part of a strategic campaign to plunge Ukraine into hardship and undermine morale as winter approaches. Ukrainian Retaliation Hits Russian Energy Hubs Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces appear to be increasing retaliatory strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Russian officials reported on November 8 that Ukrainian attacks left more than 20,000 residents in Belgorod Oblast without power, following a series of rocket launches and drone strikes. The city of Belgorod and the surrounding community experienced blackout conditions, fires, and damage to a local thermal power plant. Neighboring Kursk Oblast also suffered power outages after a substation was reportedly set alight by a Ukrainian strike. While the full extent of the disruption is unclear, these attacks highlight the expanding reach and evolving tactics of Ukrainian forces in response to sustained Russian bombardments. Dire Outlook as Winter Approaches Both countries are bracing for a winter of heightened energy insecurity and mounting civilian suffering. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in September that Ukraine would not hesitate to strike back at Russia’s energy sector if attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure persisted. With both sides trading critical blows to energy grids and power plants, civilian populations are left enduring cold, power shortages, and the uncertainty of ongoing conflict. As Ukraine’s leaders and citizens grapple with the aftermath of Russia’s largest-ever attack on its power infrastructure, questions loom over the resilience of both nations’ energy sectors and the humanitarian costs of this escalating front in the war.

Russia Strikes Energy Substations Linked to Nuclear Plants in Escalated Attack In a significant escalation overnight on November 7-8, Russian forces targeted key energy substations supplying the Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear power plants, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha. The attacks were part of a broader assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which authorities are describing as among the most severe since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Planned Strikes Raise Concerns Over Nuclear Safety Foreign Minister Sybiha emphasized that the strikes appeared methodical, dismissing the notion that they were accidental. “Russia is deliberately endangering nuclear safety in Europe,” he stated on social media, underscoring the international ramifications. While Sybiha did not confirm the extent of damage to the substations, he strongly condemned the targeting of critical infrastructure that supports nuclear facilities. Despite the severity of the attack, officials reported no immediate disruptions to the operations of the Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear power plants. Both plants remain functional and under the oversight of Ukraine’s nuclear authority and international monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Widespread Outages and Emergency Measures According to Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk, Russia launched 45 cruise and ballistic missiles and fired over 450 other munitions overnight, making it one of the largest direct missile assaults on Ukraine’s energy sector to date. The strikes prompted widespread emergency outages, with Kyiv experiencing power cuts that lasted over 12 hours. The state grid operator, Ukrenergo, confirmed that several regions were forced to implement blackout protocols to stabilize the system. Calls for Global Action Amid Heightened Risk The proximity of these nuclear plants to the attacks has elicited urgent calls for international intervention. Sybiha has requested an emergency session of the IAEA’s Board of Governors and appealed to major Russian energy partners, China, and India, to exert pressure on Moscow. “There needs to be global pressure to force Moscow to stop its nuclear blackmail,” he insisted, warning that the campaign risks precipitating a catastrophic incident. The Khmelnytskyi and Rivne plants, both situated in western Ukraine and distant from active frontlines, remain vulnerable due to their dependence on critical infrastructure. Earlier incidents reported by IAEA staff have included the sounds of drones and gunfire near the sites, heightening anxieties surrounding their security. Continuing Threats to Ukraine’s Nuclear Facilities Ukraine’s nuclear sector has faced repeated threats since the Russian invasion began, with the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant already a focal point of international concern. The IAEA has consistently warned about the dangers posed by military activity near nuclear installations, noting that any attack on supporting infrastructure can rapidly escalate into a broader crisis. As the conflict drags on, Ukrainian authorities and international agencies are intensifying efforts to shield Europe’s nuclear assets from the fallout of war, calling for urgent diplomatic and practical measures to mitigate the growing risks.

Intensified Clashes Define Global Conflict Landscape The past week has underscored the persistent volatility of armed confrontations worldwide, as entrenched disputes and emerging battles continued to determine the lives of millions. While major conflicts dominate headlines, significant violence in less-publicized regions persists, often overlooked by the broader international community. Middle East: Stalemates and Humanitarian Crises In the Middle East, the confrontations in Gaza continue to escalate, with both Israeli forces and Palestinian groups reporting casualties amid intensified bombardments and ground operations. Ceasefire proposals remain under negotiation, but recurrent hostilities have prevented tangible progress. The region endures profound humanitarian challenges—aid convoys struggle to enter, hospitals face critical shortages, and civilian displacement numbers rise daily. Elsewhere, Syria’s northwest has witnessed renewed skirmishes between government-affiliated troops and opposition fighters in Idlib province, highlighting the protracted nature of the conflict and the fragility of ongoing truce agreements. Africa: Complexities Beyond the Headlines Sudan has entered another week of acute violence as rival military factions vie for control in populated urban areas such as El Fasher. Alongside mounting civilian casualties and mass displacement, peace talks have failed to broker lasting tranquility. In the Sahel, Burkina Faso and Mali experience frequent attacks by armed groups, with towns beset by insecurity as local militias clash with government and foreign contingents. The Democratic Republic of Congo also remains a flashpoint; the resurgence of the M23 group in the east has prompted hundreds to flee, and regional diplomats warn of potential escalation without stronger intervention. Asia-Pacific: Escalation and Underreported Tensions Renewed fighting was reported between Myanmar’s military junta and ethnic armed groups, particularly in Kachin and Shan states. Local sources indicate that airstrikes on villages have pushed thousands from their homes, compounding an already dire refugee crisis. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, security forces confronted insurgent groups in Mindanao, resulting in episodic firefights and localised disruptions. In the disputed areas of Kashmir, cross-border firing between Indian and Pakistani forces flared after several weeks of calm, prompting concerns of yet another cycle of tit-for-tat engagements. Europe and the Caucasus: Entrenched Battles and Fragile Ceasefires The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to dominate European security concerns, with heavy fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Despite recent international diplomatic initiatives, neither side has gained substantial ground, and civilian infrastructure remains at severe risk. Further south, sporadic clashes have reignited tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan along their shared border, raising fears that progress made after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh hostilities could unravel. Americas: Gang Battles and Civic Unrest While not traditional warfare, Haiti’s spiraling gang violence resembles an ongoing conflict, with rival factions engaging in deadly shootouts for territorial control of Port-au-Prince. Attempts by regional organizations to broker peace have seen mixed results, and everyday Haitians are left navigating a perilous environment. Colombia has also faced episodes of violence between government troops and residual armed groups, particularly in the Pacific and border regions, threatening peace accords established in recent years. Conclusion: A Patchwork of Persistent and Overlooked Strife This week’s overview reveals an international tapestry of conflict, both widely publicized and barely reported. While efforts at mediation and aid continue, a common thread emerges: the need for sustained engagement and nuanced understanding of each unique conflict. As global attention is drawn to flashpoints in Ukraine and Gaza, continued coverage and humanitarian action in lesser-known theatres remain urgently required.

U.S. Army Unveils New Mobile Brigade Model with Transformation of 81st Stryker Brigade In a strategic pivot toward faster and more adaptable ground forces, the U.S. Army has launched a major overhaul of the Washington-based 81st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, transitioning it into the military’s first Mobile Brigade Combat Team (MBCT). This historic redesign, announced at the end of October 2025, signals a broader shift in Army doctrine amidst evolving threats and complex multi-domain operational environments. Embracing Mobility Over Armor The transformation, centered at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, is ushering out the brigade’s signature Stryker 8x8 armored vehicles, replacing them with Infantry Squad Vehicles (ISVs) engineered through collaboration between GM Defense and Polaris. Unlike the armored Strykers, ISVs are lightweight, unarmored, and optimized for rapid movement and low detectability. The ISV—a nine-passenger tactical vehicle based on the Chevrolet Colorado ZR2 platform—can be swiftly airlifted or sling-loaded by helicopters, giving ground units unmatched flexibility for quick deployments, even in the world’s most austere theaters. Measuring under 2,270 kilograms (5,000 pounds), the ISV’s agility and reach—over 500 kilometers (310 miles) at speeds of more than 110 km/h (68 mph)—make it an ideal asset for terrain where infrastructure is sparse and heavy armor impedes maneuverability. By emphasizing mobility, dispersion, and speed, the Army aims to boost tactical survivability against adversaries equipped with long-range fires and sophisticated reconnaissance. Integrating Robotics and Digital Command The new MBCT structure is not simply about fielding lighter vehicles. It represents a paradigm shift in combined-arms warfare that prioritizes digital integration and autonomous support systems. Plans call for the brigade to operate alongside robotic ground vehicles for logistics and reconnaissance, employ small tactical drones for continuous battlefield awareness, and network sensors to sustain digital connectivity, even in communications-denied environments. These advances are part of the Army’s “Transforming in Contact” doctrine, which tilts the balance away from traditional armor mass toward fast, dispersed formations powered by real-time data fusion and robotic support. As the first unit to implement this approach, the 81st Brigade is set to validate new tactics, experiment with unmanned systems, and refine the operational model for the next generation of Army brigades. Strategic Implications for Global Deployment The MBCT’s rapid-deployment capability aligns closely with contemporary U.S. and NATO defense priorities—particularly in regions like Eastern Europe, the Arctic, and the Indo-Pacific, where the ability to project force quickly can be decisive. Unlike heavy armored brigades, the ISV-equipped unit can be transported via C-130 aircraft and operate with self-sufficiency in environments with limited infrastructure. This flexibility supports fast reinforcement of allies and enables forward deterrence without the substantial logistical footprint of traditional armored forces. A Pioneering Unit at the Forefront of Change The 81st Brigade’s transformation marks its third major organizational evolution since the early 2000s, having previously shifted from an armored to a Stryker brigade before embracing the current mobile combat concept. As the Army’s pilot MBCT, the 81st will play a critical role in shaping future force designs, providing essential feedback on doctrine, technology integration, and operational effectiveness in the field. Redefining Combat for the Modern Battlefield Ultimately, the conversion of the 81st Stryker Brigade reflects the U.S. Army’s commitment to adapting its fighting forces for high-intensity, technologically charged conflicts. In the age of near-peer competitors who wield advanced ISR, electronic warfare, and missile capabilities, speed, agility, and digital proficiency are increasingly vital. The Mobile Brigade Combat Team initiative is set to redefine how the Army maintains its tactical edge—and how U.S. ground forces will fight and survive on tomorrow’s battlefields.

Russia Initiates Formal Preparations for Potential Nuclear Weapons Tests In a pivotal move that echoes the geopolitical tensions of the Cold War era, the Kremlin has instructed a consortium of ministries and agencies to develop concrete proposals for resuming nuclear weapons testing. The directive, issued on November 5, 2025, underscores Russia’s intent to respond in kind should another nuclear power, notably the United States, resume nuclear detonations—a prospect that now looms over global arms control. Strategic Readiness at Novaya Zemlya At the heart of Russia’s preparations is Novaya Zemlya, the historic Arctic test site synonymous with Soviet-era nuclear experimentation. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, addressing the Russian Security Council, cited the site’s high operational readiness and noted that the infrastructure could be activated with minimal notice. Such readiness supports a flexible spectrum of testing activities, from subcritical, zero-yield experiments to assess modern warhead components to fully contained underground tests of updated missile systems. This dual-capability posture, officials stress, is designed to mirror any shift in U.S. policy and serves as a warning that Russia stands ready to re-enter the nuclear testing arena should global moratoria erode. Modernization and Technical Benchmarks While emphasizing a reactive strategy, Moscow’s technical ambitions go beyond mere demonstration. Should nuclear testing resume, initial Russian efforts are likely to focus on subcritical experiments—critical for stockpile maintenance and warhead modernization without violating the threshold of explosive yield. Such diagnostics would stress-test plutonium pits and validate novel components, shoring up Russia’s deterrent while remaining technically and politically distinct from overt detonations. Further escalation could see Russia advance to low-yield, fully contained underground shots to credential new or refurbished warhead designs. Weapon systems under scrutiny could include reentry vehicles for silo- and mobile-launched ICBMs (such as Yars and Sarmat), submarine-launched missiles like Bulava, and advanced hypersonic platforms such as Avangard. Analogous attention may be given to Russia’s tactical arsenal, with testing scenarios designed to validate emerging, lower-yield options for adaptable, regional deterrence. Spotlight on “Exotic” Nuclear Capabilities Recent official statements have also amplified Russia’s focus on unconventional weaponry. High-profile programs such as the 9M730 Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon underwater nuclear vehicle are framed as strategic counterweights to Western missile defenses. While these categories do not currently require explosive testing to further non-nuclear aspects of their development, any decision to validate their warhead designs might necessitate uniquely tailored underground detonations, complicating detection, attribution, and arms control verification efforts. Evolving Legal and Political Calculus The immediate impetus for Russia’s renewed preparations stems from intensifying U.S. rhetoric. Public remarks from former President Donald Trump regarding the possible resumption of American nuclear testing, along with subsequent equivocations, have been met with apprehension in Moscow. Russia, which formally de-ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 2023, has sought to establish “parity” with the United States—a signatory that never ratified the treaty. This legal maneuvering, coupled with the Kremlin’s insistence that its own testing would only follow external precedent, is reshaping the strategic landscape. Global Security Implications Russia’s consolidation of political will and technical readiness signals a moment of heightened vulnerability for international nuclear norms. Should one nuclear state reignite testing, there is a pronounced risk of a cascading destabilization of the arms control regime. The world now faces the uncomfortable prospect that nuclear risk, long managed through restraint and verification, may once again dominate security calculations. Allied reassurance, diplomatic crisis management, and global nonproliferation efforts now hang in the balance, as a new phase of strategic competition threatens to emerge.