Uncrowned Guard

Ukrainian Strike Hits Russian Naval Assets in Novorossiysk Ukrainian forces struck the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk on March 2, damaging three naval vessels and killing three sailors, according to a source in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU). Fourteen additional personnel were reportedly injured. The SBU source said the operation was conducted in coordination with Ukraine’s Defense Forces. The minesweeper Valentin Pikul was hit, while two anti-submarine ships, the Yeysk and the Kasimov, sustained what the source described as severe damage. A fire at the port reportedly burned throughout the night. In addition to naval vessels, the strike allegedly damaged six of seven oil-loading berths at the Sheskharis oil terminal, other port infrastructure, a 30N6E2 guidance radar associated with the S-300PMU-2 Favorit air defense system, and a Pantsir-S2 air defense missile system. Novorossiysk has grown in strategic importance since repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied Crimea reduced the operational capacity of facilities there. The port now serves as a principal logistics and basing hub for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Escalating Drone Attacks on Rail Infrastructure Russian drone attacks targeted Ukrainian railway infrastructure and passenger trains on March 4, injuring at least one railway worker, Deputy Prime Minister for Reconstruction Oleksii Kuleba reported. The strikes form part of what Ukrainian officials describe as an intensified campaign against rail assets since July 2025. Ukrzaliznytsia, Ukraine’s state railway operator, said that since the beginning of March, Russia has conducted 18 strikes on railway infrastructure, averaging six per day. The company stated it coordinates with the military to monitor airspace along rail routes and implements safety protocols when threats are detected, including rerouting trains and evacuating passengers. In Mykolaiv Oblast, a drone struck an empty train undergoing maintenance, injuring one railway employee. In a separate incident in Odesa Oblast, a strike on railway infrastructure injured two children and another railway worker, according to Kuleba. Russian LNG Tanker Fire in Mediterranean A Russian-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker, the Arctic Metagaz, caught fire in the Mediterranean Sea, multiple media outlets reported on March 3. Reuters, citing maritime sources, said the vessel was ablaze near Malta, while other reports placed the incident closer to Libya’s coastline. One source told Reuters that the fire may have resulted from a Ukrainian naval drone attack, though this has not been independently confirmed. Russian state media outlet TASS, citing the Russian Ministry of Transport, reported on March 4 that Ukrainian sea drones attacked the tanker. The Arctic Metagaz is under sanctions from the United States, European Union, and United Kingdom. The vessel is suspected of operating within Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” a network of tankers characterized by opaque ownership structures, flags of convenience, and irregular shipping practices used to transport Russian oil and gas despite Western restrictions. Broader Military Developments Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree increasing the authorized strength of Russia’s regular armed forces to nearly 2.4 million personnel. The move marks another expansion of military manpower amid ongoing hostilities. The reported strikes at sea, against rail infrastructure, and on energy-linked maritime assets underscore the widening geographic scope of the conflict, extending from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean while continuing to affect civilian and logistical networks within Ukraine. View full article

Joint U.S.-Ecuador Operations Target Designated Trafficking Groups U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) announced Tuesday that American and Ecuadorian forces have begun joint military operations in Ecuador aimed at dismantling what it described as “narco-terrorist” organizations. In a statement, SOUTHCOM said the mission seeks to confront groups responsible for “terror, violence, and corruption” across the hemisphere. The operation marks the first publicly announced U.S. ground mission in South America since the high-profile raid targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. It is also the first confirmed mission since U.S. troops returned this winter to a former American military facility in Ecuador. Scope and Assets Remain Unclear Details regarding the size, duration, and specific objectives of the deployment have not been disclosed. SOUTHCOM did not specify the number of U.S. personnel involved or the geographic areas of operation within Ecuador. Video released by the command shows a helicopter, appearing to be an Airbus Super Puma, on the ground alongside aerial black-and-white footage that resembles drone or surveillance aircraft imagery. The footage depicts ground forces moving toward helicopters, suggesting air mobility support as part of the mission. SOUTHCOM has not publicly identified the targeted groups beyond describing them as “Designated Terrorist Organizations.” Background on Designations and Local Context In 2025, the Trump administration designated two Ecuadorian drug trafficking organizations, Los Lobos and Los Choneros, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations. Both groups have been linked to escalating violence, prison unrest, and organized criminal activity in Ecuador in recent years. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa announced earlier this week that the country would begin a “new phase against drug trafficking and illegal mining,” including joint operations with regional allies such as the United States. The announcement followed a two-day visit to Ecuador by Marine Gen. Francis Donovan, the newly appointed head of SOUTHCOM, who met with senior Ecuadorian officials. U.S. Military Presence and Legal Framework Although Ecuadorians rejected a November referendum that would have permitted the return of permanent foreign military bases, the United States confirmed in December that it was deploying an unspecified number of troops to assist Ecuador’s armed forces in countering drug trafficking. Personnel have been stationed at the former U.S. base in Manta, currently operated by Ecuador’s military. SOUTHCOM previously stated that the mission would be “short-term” and conducted under existing bilateral agreements and in accordance with Ecuadorian law. Broader Regional Counter-Drug Campaign The Ecuador operation aligns with a broader Department of Defense campaign targeting narcotics trafficking in Latin America and surrounding waters. Since September, U.S. military aircraft have conducted dozens of strikes against small vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific suspected of drug smuggling. The administration has reported that approximately 150 individuals have been killed in those actions. Officials have framed the expanded military involvement as part of a regional effort to disrupt trafficking networks and associated violence, though questions remain regarding operational transparency and long-term objectives. View full article

PrSM Employed in Combat for First Time During Operation Epic Fury US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the US Army’s Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) has been used in combat for the first time since its fielding in late 2023. The employment occurred during Operation Epic Fury, according to an official statement posted on CENTCOM’s social media channels. “In a historic first, long-range Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) were used in combat during Operation Epic Fury, providing an unrivaled deep strike capability,” the command stated. Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander, said the operation demonstrated the military’s ability to leverage innovation to create operational challenges for adversaries. CENTCOM did not provide additional details regarding the specific targets struck by the missile. Launch Platform and Capabilities Video released by CENTCOM showed a PrSM launched from a M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) in a desert environment. The missile is also compatible with the M270A2 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). The missile used appears to be part of the PrSM Increment 1 configuration. Developed by Lockheed Martin, Increment 1 is designed to replace the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). It offers a range of at least 500 kilometers, providing extended reach compared to legacy systems and enhancing the Army’s long-range precision fires capability. Increment 1 is currently the only fielded variant of the PrSM program. Planned Future Variants The Army has outlined multiple follow-on increments to expand the missile’s functionality and range. PrSM Increment 2 is expected to incorporate a multimode seeker known as the Land-Based Anti-Ship Missile seeker, enabling maritime targeting capabilities. Increment 3 is planned to introduce enhanced lethality payloads. Meanwhile, competing industry teams—one led by Lockheed Martin and another by Raytheon Technologies and Northrop Grumman—are developing concepts for Increment 4. This version aims to exceed 1,000 kilometers in range, effectively doubling the reach of the current system. The Army has also signaled interest in a fifth iteration capable of ranges beyond 1,000 kilometers and launch from an autonomous platform, though those efforts remain in development. Broader Strike Package in Operation Epic Fury CENTCOM has confirmed that Operation Epic Fury has involved a range of US military assets. These include B-2 Spirit bombers, F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft, and the Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS), a one-way attack drone described as being modeled after Iran’s Shahed-136 system. Army air and missile defense assets deployed during the operation include Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems, along with other counter-drone capabilities that were not specified. According to CENTCOM statements, targets have included command and control centers, ballistic missile and drone facilities, Iranian naval vessels and submarines, airfields, and headquarters associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. View full article

Qatar Downs Two Iranian Su-24MK Bombers During Airspace Intercept Qatar’s Ministry of Defense confirmed on March 2, 2026, that the Qatar Emiri Air Force shot down two Iranian Su-24MK tactical bombers as they approached national airspace. The engagement occurred on the third day of combat operations associated with Operation Epic Fury, also referred to as Roaring Lion. It marks the first confirmed destruction of an Iranian aircraft in flight since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war. According to the ministry, the aircraft were intercepted immediately after detection in accordance with established operational plans. The air force conducted the aircraft engagement, while additional defensive actions were carried out across the country the same day. Ballistic Missile and Drone Interceptions Qatar reported intercepting seven ballistic missiles and five drones targeting multiple locations. All ballistic missiles were destroyed before reaching their intended targets. Drone interceptions involved both the Qatar Emiri Air Force and the Qatar Emiri Navy Forces. Earlier on March 2, two drones struck near a power plant in Mesaieed and an energy installation in Ras Laffan Industrial City. Authorities stated that damage assessments were ongoing at the time of the announcement. The Qatar Emiri Air Force operates F-15QA Ababil, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Dassault Rafale fighters for air defense missions. These aircraft operate alongside ground-based systems, including Patriot and NASAMS batteries. Officials did not specify whether the Su-24MKs were downed by fighter aircraft or surface-to-air missile systems. Iran’s Su-24MK Fleet and Capabilities Iran acquired its first Su-24MK aircraft from the Soviet Union between 1990 and 1992. During the 1991 Gulf War, 24 Iraqi Su-24 bombers were flown to Iran and later integrated into the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force. By 2013, approximately 30 aircraft were reported operational, though some have since been lost in accidents. The Su-24MK is the export version of the Su-24M tactical bomber, designed for long-range strike missions. It features a variable-geometry wing, twin Lyulka AL-21F-3A turbojet engines, and a maximum takeoff weight of 43,755 kg. The aircraft can reach speeds of 1,654 km/h at altitude and has a ferry range of 2,775 km. Armament includes a 23 mm GSh-6-23M internal cannon and up to 8,000 kg of ordnance across nine hardpoints. Compatible munitions include guided and unguided bombs, anti-radiation missiles, anti-ship missiles, and standoff strike weapons. The platform has also been used as a launch platform for Iran’s Asef air-launched cruise missile, unveiled in 2023. The Su-24MK remains one of Iran’s primary dedicated strike aircraft, regularly participating in long-range and night training exercises involving coordinated operations with other aircraft, drones, and air defense units. View full article

France Announces “Forward Deterrence” Strategy French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that France will increase its nuclear arsenal and, for the first time, permit the temporary deployment of nuclear-armed aircraft to allied European countries. The policy, described as “forward deterrence,” is intended to strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy amid ongoing security concerns linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and shifting U.S. defense priorities. Speaking at the L’Ile Longue naval base, home to France’s ballistic missile submarines, Macron said the initiative would allow “the temporary deployment of elements of our strategic air forces to allied countries.” He emphasized that any decision to use France’s nuclear weapons would remain solely under the authority of the French president. Scope of Allied Cooperation Macron confirmed that discussions on deterrence cooperation have begun with Britain, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, and Denmark. France will also invite partner nations to participate in nuclear deterrence exercises and permit non-nuclear allied forces to take part in related activities. Germany signaled support for deeper integration. In a joint statement, Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the two countries would expand deterrence cooperation this year, including German conventional participation in French nuclear exercises and joint visits to strategic facilities. Dutch officials informed lawmakers that talks with France are intended to complement, not replace, NATO’s collective defense and nuclear umbrella. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also expressed support for enhanced cooperation. Macron ruled out the possibility of German aircraft carrying French nuclear weapons, despite earlier public discussion of the concept. Expansion of Nuclear Arsenal Macron further announced an increase in France’s nuclear warhead count, currently reported at fewer than 300. He did not specify the new total but said the move would ensure the “assured destructive power” of France’s deterrent. It marks the first expansion of France’s arsenal since at least 1992. France has been the European Union’s only nuclear power since the United Kingdom left the bloc in 2020. The U.K., while no longer an EU member, remains a NATO ally and Western Europe’s only other nuclear-armed state. In July, France and Britain adopted a declaration allowing their independent nuclear forces to be coordinated. Strategic Context in Europe European leaders have increasingly questioned the long-term reliability of U.S. security guarantees under NATO’s nuclear umbrella. Macron said recent shifts in U.S. defense strategy and emerging global threats underscore the need for Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own security. He cited evolving adversary defenses, the rise of regional powers, potential coordination among rival states, and proliferation risks as factors behind the decision to reinforce France’s nuclear posture. While opening new avenues for cooperation, Macron reiterated that command and control of France’s nuclear weapons will remain exclusively national. The announcement positions France at the center of efforts to reshape Europe’s deterrence framework while maintaining alignment with NATO structures. View full article

RAF F-35s Record First Combat Kill Over Jordan British Royal Air Force F-35B Lightning II aircraft have achieved their first confirmed combat kill, downing hostile drones over Jordan, the UK Ministry of Defence announced Tuesday. The engagement marks the first time an RAF F-35 has destroyed a target during operational deployment. According to the ministry, the stealth fighters were supported by Typhoon aircraft and a Voyager aerial refueling tanker during the mission. The interception occurred amid escalating regional tensions following Iranian retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli targets. Broader Drone Interceptions Across the Region In addition to the Jordan operation, British forces intercepted multiple drones across the Middle East within a 24-hour period. An RAF Typhoon fighter shot down an Iranian drone headed toward Qatar using an air-to-air missile, while other counter-drone actions were conducted in Iraqi airspace. Iran has launched hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and one-way attack drones at targets across the region since hostilities intensified. Strikes have targeted Israel, Gulf States, and installations hosting US forces. A recent attack on a US military base killed at least six American service members and injured several others. British military facilities have also been affected. The Ministry of Defence confirmed that a suspected drone struck RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. No casualties were reported, but the incident prompted additional defensive measures. Capabilities of the RAF F-35B Fleet The UK operates the F-35B variant of the Lockheed Martin-produced fighter, designed for air-to-air, air-to-surface, and electronic warfare missions. The aircraft’s short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) capability allows it to operate from aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, and austere forward bases. The United Kingdom began receiving F-35 aircraft in 2012, and the fleet reached initial operational capability in 2018. The platform’s stealth characteristics and sensor integration are intended to provide enhanced survivability and situational awareness in contested environments. Recent deployments have reinforced RAF presence in Cyprus, where additional F-35s, radar systems, counter-drone equipment, and ground-based air defenses have been positioned in response to rising regional threats. Naval Reinforcements in Eastern Mediterranean The UK government has also announced the deployment of the Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon to the Eastern Mediterranean. The vessel is equipped with advanced air defense systems designed to counter missile and drone threats. Wildcat helicopters armed with Martlet missiles will accompany the deployment to enhance counter-drone capabilities. Defence Secretary John Healey stated that the measures are intended to strengthen Britain’s defensive posture rather than signal offensive involvement in the conflict. Air defense engagements have intensified across the Middle East since the United States and Israel initiated strikes on Iranian targets. Allied forces report intercepting hundreds of retaliatory missiles and drones over recent days, underscoring the scale of ongoing aerial exchanges. The RAF’s confirmed F-35 combat engagement represents a milestone for the UK’s fifth-generation fleet as regional air defense operations continue. View full article

Ukraine Reports Net Territorial Gains in February 2026 Ukrainian forces captured more territory in February 2026 than Russian troops seized during the same period, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on March 2. The statement follows a winter slowdown in Russian advances across much of the front line, while Ukrainian units conducted offensive actions in select sectors. Syrskyi described the period as a difficult winter campaign, noting that Ukraine’s relative territorial gains were the highest since the start of its incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in summer 2024. On Feb. 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had liberated 300 square kilometers in what he characterized as a counteroffensive operation. Southern Front Sees Increased Activity Offensive activity was most visible along the southern front, particularly near the boundary between Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Dozens of videos circulated in February showing Ukrainian assaults in the area, which lacks significant natural defensive features and has remained one of the most fluid sectors since autumn 2025. Russian forces had previously advanced there against comparatively weaker Ukrainian brigades. However, the front has since stabilized. Open-source analysts describe much of the current fighting as occurring within a contested “grey zone,” with infiltrations by both sides. Trackable Ukrainian advances appear to involve clearing operations rather than the seizure of established Russian defensive lines. Mapping Data Reflects Slower Russian Progress Independent open-source mapping project Deep State reported that Ukraine lost 126 square kilometers in February, the lowest monthly territorial loss since summer 2024. While Russian gains in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts have largely stalled, the project noted continued Russian advances near occupied Siversk in Donetsk Oblast. Deep State has not yet incorporated the reported Ukrainian counterattacks in the southern sector into its public maps, citing operational security considerations and a cautious verification process. Winter Conditions Shape Battlefield Dynamics As in the previous winter, cold weather has generally favored defensive operations. Harsh conditions and limited cover have complicated Russian small-group infiltration tactics, with many units reportedly unable to traverse drone-monitored “kill zones” without detection. Weather-related constraints, including fog and reduced battery performance, have affected drone operations on both sides. Despite these limitations, Syrskyi said Russian personnel losses have averaged above 1,000 per day during the winter, exceeding Moscow’s recruitment capacity. Similar assessments have previously been voiced by Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi. Accurate measurement of territorial control remains increasingly difficult due to the fluidity of front-line positions and limited independent verification. Nonetheless, February’s data and official statements indicate a relative shift in momentum compared with earlier periods of the conflict. View full article