[Discussion] Russia Allegedly Launches ICBM in Escalating Ukraine Conflict

Russia Allegedly Fires ICBM at Ukraine

On the morning of November 21, Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the eastern city of Dnipro. This would mark a significant development, as it would be the first time Russia has incorporated this type of weapon in an assault against Ukraine. Russia has yet to confirm this information.

A national air raid alert was triggered in the early hours, citing the menace of ballistic missiles and the subsequent deployment of several Russian Tu-95MS bomber aircraft. The attack reportedly targeted Dnipro with a diverse array of missile types. Among these were Kh-47M2 'Kinzhal' aeroballistic missiles launched from a MiG-31K jet from the Tambov region, seven Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers, and an ICBM from the Astrakhan area in the Russian Federation.

The exact type of the ICBM has not yet been revealed. The Astrakhan region is situated over 700 kilometers to the east of Dnipro, at the southern edge of Russia. Akin to its neighboring country of Ukraine, the region shares borders with Kazakhstan, Russia’s Kalmykia Republic, Volgograd Oblast, and the Caspian Sea.

Impact of the Assault on Dnipro

The assault resulted in property damage, including an industrial enterprise and a rehabilitation center for the disabled, according to regional Governor Serhii Lysak and city Mayor Borys Filatov. Furthermore, at least two individuals were injured in the incident.

The Ukranian Air Force reported that six of the Kh-101 missiles had been successfully intercepted, but it was unclear whether the ICBM caused any of the devastation in Dnipro.

Insight into Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

While short-range ballistic missiles have often been used by Russia in aerial attacks against Ukraine, ICBMs are larger and capable of reaching targets positioned at much greater distances. Thanks to their ability to carry nuclear payloads, ICBMs are extremely potent.

Ballistic missiles are rocket-propelled, designed to ascend into the atmosphere before descending on their target. Despite their potential lack of precision due to guidance only in the initial stage of launch, they offer the advantage of extreme speeds—exceeding 3,200 kilometers per hour as they near their targets. Notably, they boast an impressive range, stretching from around 1,000 kilometers to more than 5,000 kilometers in the case of ICBMs.

Implications of the Attack

The soundness of the report that Russia launched a RS-26 Rubezh medium-range ICBM, as previously suggested by Ukrainian media, is yet to be confirmed. The Rubezh, which is said to have a range of up to 6,000 kilometers, can hold four warheads, each with an estimated payload of 0.3 megatons.

If confirmed, defense expert Fabian Hoffmann of the University of Oslo indicates that this launch would present predominantly political, rather than military, importance. Considering that Russia is not known to possess a non-nuclear warhead for the Rubezh, the likelihood is that it transported a weight simulator instead of a warhead.

In the wake of what appears to be Ukraine's first successful hit on a military target within Russia using US-supplied ATACMS missiles, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that his country would respond.

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