[Discussion] Russia Advances Slowly in Donetsk as Ukraine Expands Deep Strikes

Battlefield Picture as of July 12, 2026

The Russia-Ukraine war remains a high-intensity attritional conflict with no decisive operational breakthrough by either side. Russia continues to hold the ground initiative, especially in Donetsk, while Ukraine is expanding long-range attacks on the infrastructure supporting Russia’s war effort.

The most consequential ground fighting is centered on Kostiantynivka, part of Ukraine’s fortified defensive belt in Donetsk. Russian forces are advancing from several directions, and reporting indicates that much of the city’s outskirts has become a contested “gray zone.” Ukraine still holds positions in and around the city despite repeated Russian claims of broader progress.

Kostiantynivka is strategically important because its loss could increase pressure on Ukraine’s remaining defensive hubs in Donbas and improve Russia’s position for future operations toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Even so, the fighting remains slow and costly rather than a rapid breakthrough.

Russian Territorial Gains Remain Limited

Across the wider front, Russia has resumed modest net gains after a period of near-stagnation. One battlefield assessment estimated Russian forces captured about 31 square miles between June 9 and July 7, following a previous four-week stretch in which the front was nearly static.

Those gains indicate movement but do not suggest a collapse of Ukrainian defenses. The broader pattern remains one of incremental advances, heavy destruction, and sustained attrition rather than fast-moving maneuver warfare.

Strikes on Ukrainian Cities and Air Defense Pressure

Russia has sharply intensified missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. A July 11 strike killed at least eight people and wounded dozens. Kyiv had already faced repeated ballistic missile and drone assaults earlier in the month, including a July 7 attack that was described as the third major strike on the capital within a week.

Ukrainian defenses reportedly intercepted most incoming drones in that attack but failed to stop the ballistic missiles, underscoring the continued shortage of high-end air-defense interceptors. The United Nations said Russian strikes killed at least 265 Ukrainian civilians and injured 1,816 in June, the highest combined monthly civilian casualty total since the opening months of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

Russia is also adapting its methods. Recent reporting says Moscow is using smaller drones that are harder to jam to attack electrical substations, complicating Ukrainian efforts to defend the energy grid through electronic warfare.

Ukraine’s Deep-Strike Campaign Expands

Ukraine’s most significant recent successes have come far from the front line. Ukrainian drones have struck Russian refineries, tankers, ferries, electrical infrastructure, and maritime routes linked to occupied Crimea.

Kyiv says these attacks forced Russia to suspend or severely restrict shipping in parts of the Sea of Azov and on routes connected to the Kerch Strait. Reported damage to tankers and ferries has disrupted fuel deliveries and commercial traffic. Ukrainian officials have described the approach as “long-range sanctions,” aimed at imposing economic and logistical costs that sanctions alone have not achieved.

On July 12, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Syzran refinery again and targeted a tanker operating in the Azov-Black Sea canal. A July 6 attack also hit Russia’s largest refinery in one of Ukraine’s deepest strikes of the war, and other drones have reportedly reached energy sites as far away as Siberia.

Diplomatic Signals and Political Changes

President Donald Trump said on July 6 that a settlement was “getting closer” after contacts with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. No ceasefire or agreed framework has followed, and reporting indicates Moscow remains willing to escalate rather than freeze the front on current terms.

Russia continues to demand control of the rest of Donetsk that it has not captured, while Ukraine rejects ceding territory Russian forces have failed to take militarily.

Ukraine also began another wartime government reshuffle. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko resigned as part of a reorganization that Zelenskyy said is intended to strengthen wartime administration, foreign relations, energy security, and defense cooperation. Meanwhile, Trump said Ukraine would be allowed to manufacture Patriot missile interceptors, though any production would take time and would not quickly resolve the current air-defense shortage.

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