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TL;DR: Russia's artillery production is set to outpace the entire EU by 30% next year, prompting Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha to call for international action to curb Russia's industrial capabilities, especially its sanctions-evasion tactics like "shadow fleets" used for oil trade. Ukraine's concerns are compounded by the EU's failure to meet artillery shell delivery commitments and delays in US aid, despite international support for increasing ammunition supply. In response, Ukraine is enhancing its domestic production, successfully developing various artillery rounds and aiming to produce NATO-standard 155 mm shells by late 2024, while remaining reliant on Western partners for current supply needs.
Russian Artillery Projected to Surpass European Union, Warns Ukraine
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated on November 9th that Russia's artillery production is projected to exceed that of all European Union (EU) member states by an estimated 30% next year. This forecast was made at a press conference held in Kyiv and leveraged data from Ukrainian intelligence sources.
The Call for Global Measures Against Russia's Industrial Capacity
Expressing concern over this potential imbalance in armament production, Sybiha urged the international community to take action to limit Russia's industrial capabilities. He drew particular attention to Russia's use of "shadow fleets", which enables it to sidestep sanctions while continuing its energy resource trade, with a particular focus on oil. Sybiha highlighted the need for enhanced EU sanctions policy focus on these sectors.
Europe's Inability to Deliver on Artillery Promises Exacerbates Ukrainian Concerns
Ukraine's anxiety over a lack of ammunition has heightened throughout the year. Compounding these fears, the EU was unable to fulfill its commitment to deliver 1 million artillery shells between March 2023 and 2024. Furthermore, disagreements in Washington have precipitated a significant delay in a promised $61 billion aid package.
Several nations have shown support for a Czech-led proposal to procure 800,000 shells for Ukraine first put forth in February. In a corresponding effort, the EU has pledged 500 million euros ($544 million) to increase its annual ammunition production capacity to 2 million shells by year-end 2025.
Ukraine's Pursuit of Independence from Western Partners Through Domestic Production
In a bid to diminish its reliance on Western allies, Ukraine has been pushing for an increase in its domestic ammunition production. In the summer of 2023, defense conglomerate Ukroboronprom announced that it had successfully developed several artillery rounds, including 82 mm mortar mines, 122 mm, and 152 mm artillery rounds, and 125 mm tank shells.
Reportedly, Ukrainian officials are looking to initiate the production of NATO-standard 155 mm artillery rounds in the 'second half' of 2024. However, Ukraine's army is still primarily reliant on its partners for 155 mm shell supply, with many European countries collectively sourcing the rounds outside of Europe.
In May last year, the U.S. also made strides to support Ukraine's artillery needs, opening a new factory for 155 mm munitions manufacture, in addition to ramping up production at existing facilities.
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